Identification of Unavoidable Branch Limit Violations Due to Wind Forecast Errors

PROJECT TITLE:

Identification of Unavoidable Branch Limit Violations Due to Wind Forecast Errors

ABSTRACT:

One role of grid operators is to identify potential problems before they occur and, if necessary, take preemptive actions. As wind generation becomes increasingly widespread, there is the potential for credible, simultaneous fluctuations of output at totally different locations to result in limit violations. Existing analysis strategies that consider forecast errors either inadequately model the control responses out there to system operators (e.g., using participation factors) or ignore network constraints, which limits their utility in identifying things that would require operator action. An alternate technique of handling forecast errors, utilizing bilevel programming, is proposed here to identify things which will lead to branch overloads. What distinguishes this method from previous approaches is that it solely identifies overloads that may occur despite optimal operator reaction to forecast errors–i.e., when the overload is unavoidable, given current control capabilities. Studies conducted on 37- and 118-bus check systems demonstrate both the utility and feasibility of using this method for on-line operations.

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